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The Future of the London Stock Exchange

The Chairman of the London Stock Exchange, Christopher Gibson-Smith, recently gave an interview to The Times (London) considering a number of possible outcomes for the business going forward.

In the wake of the comprehensive defeat of the Nasdaq bid, what threat is posed by the new giant forming across the water in Paris between Euronext and the New York Stock Exchange?

“What’s going to happen”, says Gibson-Smith? “I don’t suppose they know. We watch it really carefully, but it’s not a short-term threat.”

He also dismisses any increased competition arising from Mifid, the new EU directive on financial services, and the prospect of Project Turquoise, a rival trading platform from a consortium of powerful banks. Mifid, he says, offers more opportunities to the LSE than dangers, and more of a threat to continental rivals. “They have tried it before and not achieved it. They might this time. We don’t [believe they will]. We feel confident in being able to deal with it.”

The Chairman points out that the LSE is growing trading volumes by 55 percent a year driven by algorithmic trading, which allows business to be conducted electronically at high speed. “[The system] is transforming capacity to use our transformed market”, he says. “I see a world awash with opportunities.”

However, on global markets, he’s more cautious, “There are some real national barriers in the way of achieving that.” And will the NYSE/Euronext giant come gunning for the LSE? “It’s filling column inches, but …”

Philosophical to the end, Christopher Gibson-smith opines, “There have never been, in my entire business career, fewer than five huge uncertainties that have to be dealt with”.

Whatever happens, it’s obvious the Chairman of the LSE does not intend to be caught napping.

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What Now for London Stock Exchange?

After its recent triumph in seeing off a distinctly hostile bid from American exchange Nasdaq, the LSE must be ruminating on its long run of successes in similar defensive situations over the past decade. Can it continue indefinitely?

Chairman, Christopher Gibson-Smith appears relaxed about the whole thing : “I joined [the LSE] because of the almost certainty that this sort of thing would happen.”

No regrets, then? “The succession of attacks against the exchange has disrupted our core business from delivering strategically.” In the end, though, “Everything can be dealt with. Everything is amenable to solution. I don’t engage with the world in terms of perceived obstacles that I can’t deal with. … I don’t regard Nasdaq [with 28.75 percent of LSE shares] as an obstacle to a major deal [with another exchange]. I don’t think we have any idea what Nasdaq wants to do.”

On the presence of other predators in the share register, including the no-nonsense hedge funds, Gibson-Smith says : “We ended up with a third generation of … let’s call them hedge funds, but I think of them more as active pursuers of value.”

Pollyana or realist, the LSE Chairman certainly gives the impression of being on top of a confused situation. As well he might in view of the recent run of victorious outcomes. But what of the new wave of consolidations, especially the new giant emerging on its doorstep comprising the New York Stock Exchange, Euronext and the one that got away : Liffe? And Project Turquoise is still to loom on the horizon.

More later.

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LSE Sees off Bullying Nasdaq

So the nationalist argument won after all, bolstered by the impeccable business case put by Clara Furse and the London Stock Exchange board.

This is a departure from recent events where much of the UK’s prime and strategic assets have been sold off to less than glittering buyers from all over the world.

Clara Furse can be proud of her unyielding defence of the centrepiece of Britain’s powerful financial centre in the City of London.

Inevitably, the discussion moves on to : what next? As if just doing the job is not enough for our news hungry generation.

Talk is that the LSE may link up with the New York Stock Exchange and participate in its forcoming wedding with Euronext. What was that the late Princess Diana said about three in a marriage?

Given her record of doughty defence of the LSE’s independence, why would she suddenly cave in to John Thain’s overtures? Better an all-out assault against a weakened Nasdaq to turn the tables. But I doubt relations would be good following a successful outcome and Furse has been as reluctant to go on the offensive as she has been stout in defence.

There are many options open to the London exchange now. Which it chooses to follow will be of absorbing interest during the rest of this year.

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London Stock Exchange Second in world IPOs

This has been a record year for world stock markets with IPOs raising £116 billion ($227bn), according to Ernst & Young.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange did best, grabbing 17pc of the total. But the London Stock Exchange came a close second, with 15pc, ahead of the New York exchange on 11pc, Euronext on 8pc, and Nasdaq, at a lowly 6pc.

Much of the bonanza has come from Russian and Chinese companies seeking havens in lightly-regulated financial centres. The LSE has scored heavily over the American outfits because of the negative effect of the Sarbanes-Oxley legislation.

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