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Consolidation fever hits exchanges

A new wave of exchange consolidations seems imminent, following Nasdaq’s £1.9bn ($3,7bn) agreed bid for Scandinavian group OMX.

Now energy market, New York Mercantile Exchange, is seeking partners for a possible $7.2bn ($14.2bn) deal going forward. Touted parties include NYSE Euronext, Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Deutsche Borse.

Nasdaq has denied that it could return for a third battle with the London Stock Exchange, but that could change come February since the American outfit already owns nearly 30 percent of LSE shares.

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The Future of the London Stock Exchange

The Chairman of the London Stock Exchange, Christopher Gibson-Smith, recently gave an interview to The Times (London) considering a number of possible outcomes for the business going forward.

In the wake of the comprehensive defeat of the Nasdaq bid, what threat is posed by the new giant forming across the water in Paris between Euronext and the New York Stock Exchange?

“What’s going to happen”, says Gibson-Smith? “I don’t suppose they know. We watch it really carefully, but it’s not a short-term threat.”

He also dismisses any increased competition arising from Mifid, the new EU directive on financial services, and the prospect of Project Turquoise, a rival trading platform from a consortium of powerful banks. Mifid, he says, offers more opportunities to the LSE than dangers, and more of a threat to continental rivals. “They have tried it before and not achieved it. They might this time. We don’t [believe they will]. We feel confident in being able to deal with it.”

The Chairman points out that the LSE is growing trading volumes by 55 percent a year driven by algorithmic trading, which allows business to be conducted electronically at high speed. “[The system] is transforming capacity to use our transformed market”, he says. “I see a world awash with opportunities.”

However, on global markets, he’s more cautious, “There are some real national barriers in the way of achieving that.” And will the NYSE/Euronext giant come gunning for the LSE? “It’s filling column inches, but …”

Philosophical to the end, Christopher Gibson-smith opines, “There have never been, in my entire business career, fewer than five huge uncertainties that have to be dealt with”.

Whatever happens, it’s obvious the Chairman of the LSE does not intend to be caught napping.

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London and Tokyo Get Together

The London Stock Exchange is to announce a partner arrangement with its Tokyo counterpart.

A business cooperation agreement will be signed in London today between the two exchanges. The plan is to share technology and information with a view to boosting dealing volumes.

Following the LSE victory over a hostile bid from Nasdaq, the move is designed to underpin London’s ability to remain independent while increasing its influence in rapidly changing times.

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Has Nasdaq Thrown in the Towel?

The penny seems to have dropped for Robert Greifeld and his Nasdaq team that Clara Furse’s gritty defence of London Stock Exchange independence is winning hands down.

On Friday they seemed to have thrown in the towel when it was announced that the Nasdaq offer of £12.43 per share would not be increased, although the deadline for acceptances would be extended until February 10.

Neither the UK Government nor the Office of Fair Trading have offered any comfort for Furse in this steely tussle. She was left to make the business case without the kind of protectionism enjoyed by Nasdaq, which is virtually bid-proof.

For the fifth time in recent years she appears to have made that case supremely well. LSE shareholders, like the hedge funds, owe her nothing, yet have stood firm — so far. Victory is tantalizingly in sight.

When Nasdaq chief Greifeld flew back from the Davos Economic Forum in Switzerland on Friday, he overflew London and went straight back to New York. The symbolism of that move is clear. Clara is not for turning, and Robert knows it.

There are still dangers galore for a newly-refreshed LSE post-February 10. Greifeld could make good his threat to dump his entire near 30pc stake in the LSE onto the market, possibly causing a precipitate decline. That would not be good business, however, and could lose money if the hedge funds cut and ran.

In the longer term newer exchanges permitted under EU laws, such as Project Turquoise might upset the delicate balance of pricing and attraction for new IPOs.

Those are problems for the future, however, and will not prevent victory tasting very sweet.

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